Karthik has a new business model - make an outrageous long-term prediction and publish it in some obscure paper. If it becomes true, then you are a superstar. He got this idea by watching Arjun Murti, the Goldman Sachs analyst, who predicted $100 a barrel in 2005.
Given the circumstances, Mr. Murti has made a big mistake. He has gone on to say that oil prices will hit $200 a barrel “soon” (I can’t get any dates on this statement). The problem with making another prediction after you’ve got one right is that now you are high-profile. The world knows you. Everyone has recorded this statement on the $200 thing. If the prediction doesn’t come true, he can’t just burn the journal in the safe. People will call his bluff. Even if he were an honest guy and truly got his prediction right this time, there is no guarantee it would come right the next time too.
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